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Newroz vs Al Hudod — Iraqi League 2020

Newroz
Newroz
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Al Hudod
Al Hudod
Cláudio Maradona 49', 40'
Montathar Adel 67'
R. Da Costa 62', 51'
3/8/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 19Sulaymaniyah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Newroz45%
×Draw27%
Al Hudod28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newroz
1.39
Al Hudod
1.05

Newroz creates 32% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 78 away

creates per match

Newroz
1.45
Al Hudod
0.92

allows per match

Newroz
1.18
Al Hudod
1.33

finishing

Newroz+0.00on par
Al Hudod+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newroz ↓

Al Hudod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Newroz or draw
72%
Newroz or Al Hudod
73%
Draw or Al Hudod
55%

Winning margin

Newroz wins by 2+
21%
Al Hudod wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Newroz 1+ goals
75%
Newroz 2+ goals
40%
Newroz 3+ goals
16%
Al Hudod 1+ goals
65%
Al Hudod 2+ goals
28%
Al Hudod 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Newroz (draw refunded)
61%
Al Hudod (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newroz at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.18 · 76 matches

Al Hudod away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.33 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newroz attack 1.45 + Al Hudod defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Al Hudod attack 0.92 + Newroz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Newroz scores more
45%
level
27%
Al Hudod scores more
28%

Newroz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Newroz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
Cláudio Maradona
49'
Cláudio Maradona
51'
R. Da Costa
62'
R. Da Costa
67'
Montathar Adel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Newroz vs Al Hudod

Al Hudod beat Newroz 3-2 in Iraqi League on March 8, 2024.

Goals: Cláudio Maradona (40', 49'), R. Da Costa (51', 62'), Montathar Adel (67').

The match was played at Sulaymaniyah Stadium in Sulaymaniyah.