Newport County 3–3 Walsall: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Walsall

B. Morris 67', 4'

W. Evans 45+4'

F. Draper 90+6', 53', 16'

10/20/2023

League Two · Round 14Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Newport County31%

×Draw25%

Walsall44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.54

Newport County

1.25

Walsall

1.54

Walsall creates 23% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.31

creates per match

1.78

1.31

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Newport County

1.31

Walsall

1.78

allows per match

Newport County

1.31

Walsall

1.20

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Newport County-0.31scores less

Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

56%

Newport County or Walsall

75%

Draw or Walsall

69%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

13%

Walsall wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

71%

Newport County 2+ goals

36%

Newport County 3+ goals

13%

Walsall 1+ goals

79%

Walsall 2+ goals

45%

Walsall 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

41%

Walsall (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.31 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Walsall attack 1.78 + Newport County defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Newport County scores more

31%

level

25%

Walsall scores more

44%

Walsall at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

F. Draper

Walsall · F

9.3

Match Events

4'

B. Morris↳ O. Bogle

16'

F. Draper↳ T. Knowles

45+4'

W. Evans↳ A. Wildig

46'

B. Comley← O. McEntee

53'

F. Draper↳ J. Riley

61'

Tom Knowles

67'

B. Morris↳ W. Evans

69'

D. Johnson← R. Tierney

72'

J. Seberry← M. Baker

73'

L. Gordon← T. Allen

82'

J. Matt← J. Riley

85'

M. Bondswell← A. Wildig

86'

K. Rai← L. Payne

90+7'

Freddie Draper

90+5'

O. Thomas← W. Evans

90+6'

F. Draper↳ D. Daniels

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewportWalsall

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots16

7Corners6

10Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots16

5On Target6

1Off Target5

2Blocked5

4Inside Box6

4Outside Box10

Passing

43%Possession57%

317Total Passes431

166Accurate Passes280

52%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls9

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1