Newport County vs Swindon Town

Newport County

Preview

15:00

Swindon Town

11/21/2026

League Two · Round 16Rodney Parade

Big match

40%

Newport County

model favours

40%27%33%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

under 2.5 goals

51%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Newport County40%

×Draw27%

Swindon Town33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.18

Newport County

1.31

Swindon Town

1.18

Newport County creates 11% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.24

creates per match

1.28

1.07

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Newport County

1.24

Swindon Town

1.28

allows per match

Newport County

1.07

Swindon Town

1.38

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Newport County-0.10scores less

Swindon Town+0.08on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

67%

Newport County or Swindon Town

73%

Draw or Swindon Town

60%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

18%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

73%

Newport County 2+ goals

38%

Newport County 3+ goals

14%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

69%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

33%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

54%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.07 · 7 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.38 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.24 + Swindon Town defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Swindon Town attack 1.28 + Newport County defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Newport County scores more

40%

level

27%

Swindon Town scores more

33%

Newport County at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
Newport County score first in only 30% of matches
73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Both sides lean high-scoring (60% and 73% over 2.5)
Swindon Town have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
Newport County sit 20, Swindon Town 9 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Newport County

Balanced

Swindon Town

Attack-heavy

49%Possession53%

67%Pass accuracy71%

11.6Shots12.3

1.16xGBiggest gap1.48

Newport CountySwindon Town

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3

Newport County

0

Draws

7

Swindon Town

Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 40%

0–20–11–20–42–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

County

DLWWW

Town

LLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff