Newport County 3–1 Sutton Utd: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sutton Utd

W. Evans 87'

H. Charsley 77'

J. Kizzi 70' (OG)

O. Patrick 53'

8/26/2023

League Two · Round 5Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Newport County46%

×Draw25%

Sutton Utd29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchSutton Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.17

Newport County

1.53

Sutton Utd

1.17

Newport County creates 31% more chances

Season form · 163 home / 69 away

1.32

creates per match

1.12

1.22

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Newport County

1.32

Sutton Utd

1.12

allows per match

Newport County

1.22

Sutton Utd

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newport County+0.00on par

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Sutton Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

71%

Newport County or Sutton Utd

75%

Draw or Sutton Utd

54%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

23%

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

78%

Newport County 2+ goals

45%

Newport County 3+ goals

20%

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

69%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

33%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

61%

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 163 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.32 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.53

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Newport County defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Newport County scores more

46%

level

25%

Sutton Utd scores more

29%

Newport County at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

R. Delaney

Newport County · D

8.0

Match Events

43'

45+3'

45+2'

53'

62'

A. O'Brien← S. Kashket

66'

O. Bogle← S. Bennett

70'

J. KizziOwn goal

73'

Omar Sowunmi

77'

H. Charsley↳ S. McLoughlin

85'

R. Jackson← L. Angol

85'

C. N'Guessan← C. Clay

85'

S. Hart← R. Milsom

85'

D. Bughail-Mellor← J. Coley

87'

W. Evans↳ S. Palmer-Houlden

89'

J. Waite← A. Wildig

89'

J. Seberry← S. Palmer-Houlden

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewportSutton

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots15

1Corners6

8Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots15

5On Target5

3Off Target6

5Blocked4

10Inside Box10

3Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

311Total Passes301

160Accurate Passes168

51%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0