Newport County 0–1 Southend: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Southend

T. Clifford 74'

2/9/2021

League Two · Round 22Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Newport County44%

×Draw27%

Southend29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchSouthend

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.05

Newport County

1.38

Southend

1.05

Newport County creates 31% more chances

Season form · 163 home / 31 away

1.34

creates per match

0.90

1.21

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Newport County

1.34

Southend

0.90

allows per match

Newport County

1.21

Southend

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newport County+0.00on par

Southend+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Southend →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

71%

Newport County or Southend

73%

Draw or Southend

56%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

21%

Southend wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

75%

Newport County 2+ goals

40%

Newport County 3+ goals

16%

Southend 1+ goals

65%

Southend 2+ goals

28%

Southend 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

61%

Southend (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.21 · 163 matches

Southend away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.34 + Southend defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.38

Southend attack 0.90 + Newport County defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Newport County scores more

44%

level

27%

Southend scores more

29%

Newport County at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

T. Clifford

Southend · M

8.2

Match Events

28'

J. Evans← M. Dolan

46'

R. Taylor← P. Amond

59'

S. Akinola← G. Halford

71'

J. Scrimshaw← L. Gambin

71'

D. Telford← A. Hartigan

74'

T. Clifford

83'

A. Lewis← R. Haynes

89'

T. Cordner← R. Hackett-Fairchild

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewportSouthend

Overview

51%Possession49%

7Total Shots4

4Corners3

10Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots4

1On Target2

4Off Target1

2Blocked1

7Inside Box3

0Outside Box1

Passing

51%Possession49%

374Total Passes361

218Accurate Passes216

58%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls9

2Offsides3