Newport County 1–0 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Port Vale

K. Ellison 90+6'

11/21/2020

League Two · Round 13Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Newport County38%

×Draw27%

Port Vale35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.18

Newport County

1.25

Port Vale

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 184 home / 118 away

1.34

creates per match

1.16

1.20

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Newport County

1.34

Port Vale

1.16

allows per match

Newport County

1.20

Port Vale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newport County+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

65%

Newport County or Port Vale

73%

Draw or Port Vale

62%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

17%

Port Vale wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

71%

Newport County 2+ goals

36%

Newport County 3+ goals

13%

Port Vale 1+ goals

69%

Port Vale 2+ goals

33%

Port Vale 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

52%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.20 · 184 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.34 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Newport County defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Newport County scores more

38%

level

27%

Port Vale scores more

35%

Newport County at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Dolan

Newport County · D

7.9

Match Events

25'

David Worrall

30'

Brandon Cooper

46'

D. Fitzpatrick← T. Conlon

64'

Mickey Demetriou

64'

J. Labadie← J. Devitt

64'

P. Amond← J. Proctor

67'

T. Robinson← D. Rodney

68'

Leon Legge

70'

S. Brisley← M. Cullen

74'

Cristian Montano

76'

R. Willmott← L. Shephard

85'

K. Ellison← R. Haynes

89'

A. Crookes← C. Montaño

90+6'

K. Ellison↳ S. Twine

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewportPort

Overview

61%Possession39%

26Total Shots9

8Corners4

7Fouls19

Shots

26Total Shots9

6On Target3

14Off Target3

6Blocked3

21Inside Box7

5Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

383Total Passes240

284Accurate Passes133

74%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls19

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

5Offsides0