Newport County vs Milton Keynes Dons — League Two 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 93+ matches
Newport County39%
Milton Keynes Dons36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 184 home / 93 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Newport County ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Newport County at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.20 · 184 matches
Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.56 · 93 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Newport County attack 1.34 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45
Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.54 + Newport County defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.37
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Newport County at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Milton Keynes Dons substitutes
Lincoln
BuryMilton Keynes Dons
Mansfield Town
Forest Green
TranmereNewport County
Colchester
Exeter City
Stevenage
Carlisle
Crewe
Swindon Town
Oldham
Northampton
Cheltenham
Grimsby
Morecambe
Crawley Town
Port Vale
Cambridge United
Macclesfield
Notts County
Yeovil TownIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Newport County host Milton Keynes Dons on Saturday, 21 December 2024 at 15:00. The match is part of the League Two 2018/2019 season.
League Two: Newport County 6–3 Milton Keynes Dons
Newport County beat Milton Keynes Dons 6-3 in League Two on December 21, 2024.
Goals: B. Morris (12', 16', 36' pen), B. Kamwa (23', 47', 81'), L. Offord (45+4', 75'), J. White (71').
Milton Keynes Dons controlled possession (60%) and registered 17 shots to 16.
The match was played at Rodney Parade in Casnewydd.