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Newport County vs Mansfield Town — League Two 2018

Newport County
Newport County
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
3/2/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 36Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Newport County35%
×Draw27%
Mansfield Town38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newport County
1.23
Mansfield Town
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 184 home / 136 away

creates per match

Newport County
1.34
Mansfield Town
1.38

allows per match

Newport County
1.20
Mansfield Town
1.13

finishing

Newport County+0.00on par
Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Newport County or draw
62%
Newport County or Mansfield Town
73%
Draw or Mansfield Town
65%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+
15%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals
71%
Newport County 2+ goals
35%
Newport County 3+ goals
13%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
72%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
37%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)
48%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.20 · 184 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.34 + Mansfield Town defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mansfield Town attack 1.38 + Newport County defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Newport County scores more
35%
level
27%
Mansfield Town scores more
38%

Mansfield Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Newport County 0–1 Mansfield Town

Mansfield Town beat Newport County 1-0 in League Two on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Rodney Parade in Casnewydd.