Newport County 2–1 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mansfield Town

M. Dolan 88' (pen)

S. Twine 78'

S. McLaughlin 69'

10/3/2020

League Two · Round 4Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 141+ matches

Newport County37%

×Draw27%

Mansfield Town36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.23

Newport County

1.25

Mansfield Town

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 163 home / 141 away

1.34

creates per match

1.25

1.21

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Newport County

1.34

Mansfield Town

1.25

allows per match

Newport County

1.21

Mansfield Town

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newport County+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

64%

Newport County or Mansfield Town

73%

Draw or Mansfield Town

63%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

16%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

71%

Newport County 2+ goals

36%

Newport County 3+ goals

13%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

71%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

35%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

51%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.21 · 163 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.34 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Newport County defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Newport County scores more

37%

level

27%

Mansfield Town scores more

36%

Newport County at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

S. Twine

Newport County · M

8.0

Match Events

65'

James Perch

65'

S. Janneh← R. Taylor

69'

S. McLaughlin↳ J. Perch

75'

J. Bowery← N. Maynard

78'

S. Twine

83'

P. Amond← T. Abrahams

84'

A. Smith← O. Clarke

87'

Alistair Smith

87'

Corey O'Keeffe

88'

M. DolanPenalty

90'

S. Bennett← S. Twine

90+2'

A. Cook← C. OKeeffe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewportMansfield

Overview

56%Possession44%

17Total Shots12

6Corners1

9Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots12

7On Target5

4Off Target5

6Blocked2

4Inside Box4

13Outside Box8

Passing

56%Possession44%

466Total Passes368

358Accurate Passes253

77%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0