Newport County 2–2 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Leyton Orient

D. Telford 80'

M. Dolan 45+2' (pen)

H. Smith 53', 34'

9/4/2021

League Two · Round 6Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Newport County38%

×Draw27%

Leyton Orient34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.19

Newport County

1.27

Leyton Orient

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 163 home / 94 away

1.34

creates per match

1.17

1.21

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Newport County

1.34

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

Newport County

1.21

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newport County+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

66%

Newport County or Leyton Orient

73%

Draw or Leyton Orient

62%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

17%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

72%

Newport County 2+ goals

36%

Newport County 3+ goals

14%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

70%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

33%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

53%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.21 · 163 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.34 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Newport County defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Newport County scores more

38%

level

27%

Leyton Orient scores more

34%

Newport County at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

H. Smith

Leyton Orient · F

9.3

Match Events

34'

H. Smith↳ T. Archibald

45+2'

M. DolanPenalty

53'

H. Smith↳ D. Pratley

61'

D. Telford← T. Abraham

62'

P. Farquharson← M. Dolan

68'

Scot Bennett

74'

A. Livermore← S. Bennett

80'

D. Telford↳ M. Demetriou

90+3'

Thomas James

90'

Connor Wood

90+1'

C. Reilly← T. Archibald

90+1'

D. Kemp← A. Drinan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewportLeyton

Overview

58%Possession42%

9Total Shots15

2Corners4

10Fouls6

Shots

9Total Shots15

5On Target6

3Off Target3

1Blocked6

8Inside Box8

1Outside Box7

Passing

58%Possession42%

452Total Passes322

321Accurate Passes181

71%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls6

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1