Newport County 0–1 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Exeter City

T. Dieng 72'

4/2/2022

League Two · Round 40Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Newport County38%

×Draw26%

Exeter City36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.28

Newport County

1.33

Exeter City

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 163 home / 97 away

1.34

creates per match

1.35

1.21

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Newport County

1.34

Exeter City

1.35

allows per match

Newport County

1.21

Exeter City

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newport County+0.00on par

Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

64%

Newport County or Exeter City

74%

Draw or Exeter City

62%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

17%

Exeter City wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

74%

Newport County 2+ goals

38%

Newport County 3+ goals

15%

Exeter City 1+ goals

72%

Exeter City 2+ goals

37%

Exeter City 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

52%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.21 · 163 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.34 + Exeter City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Exeter City attack 1.35 + Newport County defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Newport County scores more

38%

level

26%

Exeter City scores more

36%

Newport County at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

J. Sparkes

Exeter City · M

7.9

Match Events

61'

C. Baker-Richardson← A. Fisher

71'

Mickey Demetriou

72'

T. Dieng↳ J. Sparkes

74'

L. Collins← S. Bennett

80'

K. Phillips← O. Zanzala

83'

85'

89'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewportExeter

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots10

6Corners5

11Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots10

3On Target3

3Off Target5

5Blocked2

9Inside Box7

2Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

381Total Passes358

241Accurate Passes221

63%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls10

3Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0