Newport County 4–0 Doncaster: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Doncaster

W. Evans 49', 14'

R. Wood 21' (OG)

S. Palmer-Houlden 6'

8/12/2023

League Two · Round 2Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Newport County39%

×Draw26%

Doncaster35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.29

Newport County

1.38

Doncaster

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 184 home / 73 away

1.34

creates per match

1.38

1.20

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Newport County

1.34

Doncaster

1.38

allows per match

Newport County

1.20

Doncaster

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newport County+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

65%

Newport County or Doncaster

74%

Draw or Doncaster

61%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

18%

Doncaster wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

75%

Newport County 2+ goals

40%

Newport County 3+ goals

16%

Doncaster 1+ goals

72%

Doncaster 2+ goals

37%

Doncaster 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

53%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.20 · 184 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.34 + Doncaster defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.38

Doncaster attack 1.38 + Newport County defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Newport County scores more

39%

level

26%

Doncaster scores more

35%

Newport County at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

W. Evans

Newport County · F

8.3

Match Events

6'

S. Palmer-Houlden

14'

W. Evans

21'

R. WoodOwn goal

24'

Kyle Jameson

30'

George Broadbent

30'

J. Ironside← J. Maxwell

30'

T. Anderson← O. Bailey

32'

Tom Anderson

49'

W. Evans↳ S. McLoughlin

53'

53'

61'

67'

70'

72'

74'

74'

76'

77'

M. Bondswell← H. Charsley

81'

Ryan Delaney

82'

L. Payne← S. McLoughlin

85'

Harrison Biggins

90+1'

K. Rai← S. Palmer-Houlden

90'

N. Wood← W. Evans

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewportDoncaster

Overview

41%Possession59%

14Total Shots8

2Corners5

10Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots8

6On Target2

7Off Target4

1Blocked2

13Inside Box3

1Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

264Total Passes404

142Accurate Passes280

54%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls18

4Yellow Cards6

4Offsides1