Newport County 2–1 Colchester: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Colchester

P. Amond 90+1'

S. Twine 51'

J. Brown 89'

10/27/2020

League Two · Round 9Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Newport County44%

×Draw25%

Colchester31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.26

Newport County

1.56

Colchester

1.26

Newport County creates 24% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

1.31

creates per match

1.21

1.31

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Newport County

1.31

Colchester

1.21

allows per match

Newport County

1.31

Colchester

1.81

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Newport County-0.31scores less

Colchester+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

69%

Newport County or Colchester

75%

Draw or Colchester

56%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

22%

Colchester wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

79%

Newport County 2+ goals

46%

Newport County 3+ goals

21%

Colchester 1+ goals

72%

Colchester 2+ goals

36%

Colchester 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

59%

Colchester (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.31 + Colchester defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

Colchester attack 1.21 + Newport County defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Newport County scores more

44%

level

25%

Colchester scores more

31%

Newport County at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Dolan

Newport County · D

7.7

Match Events

28'

29'

34'

51'

60'

K. Poku← H. Pell

60'

J. Brown← L. Norris

78'

J. Bohui← C. Harriott

85'

S. Bennett← J. Labadie

89'

R. Willmott← T. Abrahams

89'

J. Brown

90+3'

K. Ellison← P. Amond

90+1'

P. Amond

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewportColchester

Overview

50%Possession50%

23Total Shots8

7Corners4

6Fouls13

Shots

23Total Shots8

7On Target4

12Off Target3

4Blocked1

13Inside Box3

10Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

374Total Passes379

270Accurate Passes276

72%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

6Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2