Colchester 2–1 Newport County: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Newport County

J. Mingi 90+2'

E. Iandolo 75'

O. Zanzala 42'

3/29/2024

League Two · Round 41JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Colchester55%

×Draw23%

Newport County22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchNewport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.02

Colchester

1.77

Newport County

1.02

Colchester creates 74% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

1.41

creates per match

1.05

0.99

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Colchester

1.41

Newport County

1.05

allows per match

Colchester

0.99

Newport County

2.13

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Colchester+0.16scores more

Newport County-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Newport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

78%

Colchester or Newport County

77%

Draw or Newport County

45%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

31%

Newport County wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

83%

Colchester 2+ goals

53%

Colchester 3+ goals

26%

Newport County 1+ goals

64%

Newport County 2+ goals

27%

Newport County 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

72%

Newport County (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.99 · 14 matches

Newport County away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.13 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.41 + Newport County defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.77

Newport County attack 1.05 + Colchester defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Colchester scores more

55%

level

23%

Newport County scores more

22%

Colchester at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

C. McGeehan

Colchester · M

7.9

Match Events

42'

O. Zanzala

56'

E. Iandolo← T. Dallison-Lisbon

56'

S. Tovide← B. Ihionvien

67'

Cameron McGeehan

68'

Lewis Payne

68'

S. Palmer-Houlden← O. Zanzala

69'

J. Waite← A. Wildig

72'

T. Hopper← J. Akinde

72'

N. Chilvers← A. Smith

73'

H. Bright← M. Bondswell

75'

E. Iandolo↳ C. McGeehan

81'

James Waite

84'

Samson Tovide

90+5'

F. Kelleher← J. Fevrier

90+2'

J. Mingi↳ H. Anderson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterNewport

Overview

61%Possession39%

19Total Shots3

10Corners1

13Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots3

7On Target2

9Off Target1

3Blocked0

13Inside Box3

6Outside Box0

Passing

61%Possession39%

384Total Passes260

255Accurate Passes145

66%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4