Newport County 0–1 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cambridge United

D. Drysdale 79'

4/17/2021

League Two · Round 42Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Newport County30%

×Draw26%

Cambridge United44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.45

Newport County

1.15

Cambridge United

1.45

Cambridge United creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.31

creates per match

1.58

1.31

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Newport County

1.31

Cambridge United

1.58

allows per match

Newport County

1.31

Cambridge United

0.98

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.48scores less than expected

finishing

Newport County-0.31scores less

Cambridge United-0.48scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

56%

Newport County or Cambridge United

74%

Draw or Cambridge United

70%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

12%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

68%

Newport County 2+ goals

32%

Newport County 3+ goals

11%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

77%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

42%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

41%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.31 + Cambridge United defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.15

Cambridge United attack 1.58 + Newport County defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Newport County scores more

30%

level

26%

Cambridge United scores more

44%

Cambridge United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

D. Drysdale

Cambridge United · D

8.5

Match Events

20'

Josh Sheehan

56'

Aaron Lewis

57'

N. Maynard← R. Taylor

57'

L. Collins← K. Ellison

76'

L. Gambin← P. Amond

79'

D. Drysdale↳ W. Hoolahan

80'

81'

82'

83'

84'

87'

L. O'Neil← H. Boateng

88'

A. May← W. Hoolahan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewportCambridge

Overview

61%Possession39%

16Total Shots9

7Corners5

13Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots9

5On Target4

6Off Target2

5Blocked3

7Inside Box5

9Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

448Total Passes285

360Accurate Passes204

80%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0