Newport County 1–0 Bolton: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bolton

N. Maynard 63'

4/5/2021

League Two · Round 40Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Newport County35%

×Draw27%

Bolton38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.30

Newport County

1.25

Bolton

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 163 home / 23 away

1.34

creates per match

1.39

1.21

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Newport County

1.34

Bolton

1.39

allows per match

Newport County

1.21

Bolton

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newport County+0.00on par

Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

62%

Newport County or Bolton

73%

Draw or Bolton

65%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

15%

Bolton wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

71%

Newport County 2+ goals

36%

Newport County 3+ goals

13%

Bolton 1+ goals

73%

Bolton 2+ goals

37%

Bolton 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

48%

Bolton (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.21 · 163 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.34 + Bolton defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bolton attack 1.39 + Newport County defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Newport County scores more

35%

level

27%

Bolton scores more

38%

Bolton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

N. Maynard

Newport County · F

7.7

Match Events

45'

Scot Bennett

46'

L. Collins← D. Longe-King

59'

J. Ledley← P. Farquharson

63'

N. Maynard

72'

Z. Elbouzedi← M. Williams

72'

M. Maddison← N. Delfouneso

72'

O. Afolayan← L. Isgrove

82'

K. Ellison← N. Maynard

90'

Joss Labadie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewportBolton

Overview

41%Possession59%

7Total Shots14

8Corners7

13Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots14

5On Target2

0Off Target9

2Blocked3

4Inside Box10

3Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

262Total Passes360

136Accurate Passes244

52%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls9

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1