Newington Youth 3–2 Tobermore United

Newington Youth

FT

3 – 2

Tobermore United

3/19/2022

League #561 · Round 19Solitude

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Newington Youth76%

×Draw14%

Tobermore United10%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newington YouthExpected goals in this matchTobermore United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

0.91

Newington Youth

2.83

Tobermore United

0.91

Newington Youth creates 211% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

3.17

creates per match

0.81

1.00

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Newington Youth

3.17

Tobermore United

0.81

allows per match

Newington Youth

1.00

Tobermore United

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newington Youth+0.00on par

Tobermore United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newington Youth ↓

Tobermore United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Newington Youth or draw

90%

Newington Youth or Tobermore United

86%

Draw or Tobermore United

24%

Winning margin

Newington Youth wins by 2+

56%

Tobermore United wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Newington Youth 1+ goals

94%

Newington Youth 2+ goals

77%

Newington Youth 3+ goals

53%

Tobermore United 1+ goals

60%

Tobermore United 2+ goals

23%

Tobermore United 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Newington Youth (draw refunded)

89%

Tobermore United (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newington Youth at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Tobermore United away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newington Youth attack 3.17 + Tobermore United defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.83

Tobermore United attack 0.81 + Newington Youth defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Newington Youth scores more

76%

level

14%

Tobermore United scores more

10%

Newington Youth at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Newington Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff