Newington Youth 2–2 Dundela: Result & Stats

Newington Youth

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Dundela

11/15/2025

League #407 · Round 16Inver Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Newington Youth49%

×Draw22%

Dundela29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newington YouthExpected goals in this matchDundela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.46

Newington Youth

1.96

Dundela

1.46

Newington Youth creates 34% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 18 away

1.80

creates per match

1.22

1.70

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Newington Youth

1.80

Dundela

1.22

allows per match

Newington Youth

1.70

Dundela

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newington Youth+0.00on par

Dundela+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newington Youth ↓

Dundela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Newington Youth or draw

71%

Newington Youth or Dundela

78%

Draw or Dundela

51%

Winning margin

Newington Youth wins by 2+

28%

Dundela wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Newington Youth 1+ goals

86%

Newington Youth 2+ goals

58%

Newington Youth 3+ goals

31%

Dundela 1+ goals

77%

Dundela 2+ goals

43%

Dundela 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Newington Youth (draw refunded)

63%

Dundela (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newington Youth at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Dundela away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newington Youth attack 1.80 + Dundela defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.96

Dundela attack 1.22 + Newington Youth defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Newington Youth scores more

49%

level

22%

Dundela scores more

29%

Newington Youth at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Newington Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff