Newington Youth 0–2 Bangor: Result & Stats

Newington Youth

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bangor

S. McArthur 90+3'

M. Ferguson 45'

12/6/2024

League #407 · Round 19Inver Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Newington Youth22%

×Draw20%

Bangor57%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newington YouthExpected goals in this matchBangor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

2.19

Newington Youth

1.31

Bangor

2.19

Bangor creates 67% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

1.80

creates per match

2.67

1.70

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Newington Youth

1.80

Bangor

2.67

allows per match

Newington Youth

1.70

Bangor

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newington Youth+0.00on par

Bangor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newington Youth ↓

Bangor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Newington Youth or draw

43%

Newington Youth or Bangor

80%

Draw or Bangor

78%

Winning margin

Newington Youth wins by 2+

9%

Bangor wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Newington Youth 1+ goals

73%

Newington Youth 2+ goals

38%

Newington Youth 3+ goals

14%

Bangor 1+ goals

89%

Bangor 2+ goals

64%

Bangor 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Newington Youth (draw refunded)

28%

Bangor (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newington Youth at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Bangor away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newington Youth attack 1.80 + Bangor defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bangor attack 2.67 + Newington Youth defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Newington Youth scores more

22%

level

20%

Bangor scores more

57%

Bangor at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

M. Ferguson

90+3'

S. McArthur

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff