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Newells Old Boys vs Sportivo Peñarol — Copa Argentina 2018

Newells Old Boys
Newells Old Boys
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sportivo Peñarol
Sportivo Peñarol
12/23/2020Copa ArgentinaCopa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Único de San Nicolás

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Newells Old Boys52%
×Draw25%
Sportivo Peñarol23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newells Old Boys
1.58
Sportivo Peñarol
0.95

Newells Old Boys creates 66% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Newells Old Boys
1.36
Sportivo Peñarol
0.80

allows per match

Newells Old Boys
1.09
Sportivo Peñarol
1.80

finishing

Newells Old Boys+0.00on par
Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newells Old Boys ↓

Sportivo Peñarol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Newells Old Boys or draw
77%
Newells Old Boys or Sportivo Peñarol
75%
Draw or Sportivo Peñarol
48%

Winning margin

Newells Old Boys wins by 2+
27%
Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Newells Old Boys 1+ goals
79%
Newells Old Boys 2+ goals
47%
Newells Old Boys 3+ goals
21%
Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals
61%
Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals
25%
Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Newells Old Boys (draw refunded)
70%
Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newells Old Boys at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Sportivo Peñarol away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newells Old Boys attack 1.36 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sportivo Peñarol attack 0.80 + Newells Old Boys defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Newells Old Boys scores more
52%
level
25%
Sportivo Peñarol scores more
23%

Newells Old Boys at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Newells Old Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Newells Old Boys vs Sportivo Peñarol

Newells Old Boys beat Sportivo Peñarol 2-0 in Copa Argentina on December 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Único de San Nicolás in San Nicolás de los Arroyos.