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Newells Old Boys vs Midland — Copa Argentina 2026

Newells Old Boys
Newells Old Boys
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Midland
Midland
3/22/2024Copa ArgentinaCopa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Brigadier General Estanislao López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Newells Old Boys50%
×Draw28%
Midland23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newells Old Boys
1.38
Midland
0.84

Newells Old Boys creates 64% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Newells Old Boys
1.36
Midland
0.60

allows per match

Newells Old Boys
1.09
Midland
1.40

finishing

Newells Old Boys+0.00on par
Midland+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newells Old Boys ↓

Midland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Newells Old Boys or draw
77%
Newells Old Boys or Midland
72%
Draw or Midland
50%

Winning margin

Newells Old Boys wins by 2+
24%
Midland wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Newells Old Boys 1+ goals
75%
Newells Old Boys 2+ goals
40%
Newells Old Boys 3+ goals
16%
Midland 1+ goals
57%
Midland 2+ goals
21%
Midland 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Newells Old Boys (draw refunded)
68%
Midland (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newells Old Boys at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Midland away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newells Old Boys attack 1.36 + Midland defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Midland attack 0.60 + Newells Old Boys defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Newells Old Boys scores more
50%
level
28%
Midland scores more
23%

Newells Old Boys at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Newells Old Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Argentina: Newells Old Boys 2–0 Midland

Newells Old Boys beat Midland 2-0 in Copa Argentina on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Brigadier General Estanislao López in Ciudad de Santa Fe, Provincia de Santa Fe.