Newcastle 1–1 Wolves: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wolves

J. Lascelles 52'

Rúben Neves 73'

2/27/2021

Premier League · Round 26St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Newcastle55%

×Draw23%

Wolves23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.14

Newcastle

1.88

Wolves

1.14

Newcastle creates 65% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 31 away

2.04

creates per match

0.82

1.46

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Newcastle

2.04

Wolves

0.82

allows per match

Newcastle

1.46

Wolves

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Newcastle+0.00on par

Wolves-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

77%

Newcastle or Wolves

77%

Draw or Wolves

45%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

31%

Wolves wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

85%

Newcastle 2+ goals

56%

Newcastle 3+ goals

29%

Wolves 1+ goals

68%

Wolves 2+ goals

32%

Wolves 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

70%

Wolves (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.72 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.04 + Wolves defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.88

Wolves attack 0.82 + Newcastle defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Newcastle scores more

55%

level

23%

Wolves scores more

23%

Newcastle at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

Adama Traoré

Wolves · F

8.5

Match Events

19'

Isaac Hayden

43'

Ciaran Clark

46'

R. Fraser← M. Almirón

49'

Isaac HaydenGoal cancelled

52'

J. Lascelles↳ R. Fraser

63'

J. Murphy← A. Saint-Maximin

72'

M. Ritchie← E. Krafth

73'

Rúben Neves↳ Pedro Neto

82'

Fábio Silva← Willian José

85'

K. Hoever← Nélson Semedo

90+4'

R. Aït Nouri← Jonny Castro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleWolves

Overview

47%Possession53%

19Total Shots14

3Corners5

11Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots14

7On Target4

6Off Target7

6Blocked3

11Inside Box7

8Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

388Total Passes423

327Accurate Passes339

84%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls13

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0