Newcastle 1–1 Wolves: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Wolves

J. Lascelles 37'

Jonny Castro 73'

10/27/2019

Premier League · Round 10St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Newcastle56%

×Draw22%

Wolves22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.13

Newcastle

1.92

Wolves

1.13

Newcastle creates 70% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 31 away

2.13

creates per match

0.82

1.43

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Newcastle

2.13

Wolves

0.82

allows per match

Newcastle

1.43

Wolves

1.72

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Newcastle-0.05on par

Wolves-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

78%

Newcastle or Wolves

78%

Draw or Wolves

44%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

32%

Wolves wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

85%

Newcastle 2+ goals

57%

Newcastle 3+ goals

30%

Wolves 1+ goals

68%

Wolves 2+ goals

31%

Wolves 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

72%

Wolves (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.43 · 25 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.72 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.13 + Wolves defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.92

Wolves attack 0.82 + Newcastle defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Newcastle scores more

56%

level

22%

Wolves scores more

22%

Newcastle at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

J. Willems

Newcastle · D

7.8

Match Events

37'

J. Lascelles↳ F. Fernández

55'

Ciaran Clark

66'

Jamaal Lascelles

69'

Romain Saïss

70'

Pedro Neto← Diogo Jota

73'

Jonny Castro

75'

Rúben Neves

82'

Sean Longstaff

84'

Rúben Vinagre← Jonny Castro

85'

J. Shelvey← Joelinton

90'

C. Atsu← M. Longstaff

90'

D. Gayle← A. Saint-Maximin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleWolves

Overview

43%Possession57%

13Total Shots13

3Corners6

8Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots13

2On Target5

7Off Target5

4Blocked3

7Inside Box9

6Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

405Total Passes533

317Accurate Passes451

78%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1