Newcastle 2–3 Swansea: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.09

Newcastle

1.60

Swansea

1.09

Newcastle creates 47% more chances

Season form · 175 home / 74 away

1.51

creates per match

0.93

1.26

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Newcastle

1.51

Swansea

0.93

allows per match

Newcastle

1.26

Swansea

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newcastle+0.00on par

Swansea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

74%

Newcastle or Swansea

75%

Draw or Swansea

51%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

26%

Swansea wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

80%

Newcastle 2+ goals

47%

Newcastle 3+ goals

22%

Swansea 1+ goals

66%

Swansea 2+ goals

30%

Swansea 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

65%

Swansea (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.26 · 175 matches

Swansea away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.69 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 1.51 + Swansea defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.60

Swansea attack 0.93 + Newcastle defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Newcastle scores more

49%

level

25%

Swansea scores more

26%

Newcastle at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Ayoze Pérez

45+2'

Nélson Oliveira↳ G. Sigurðsson

49'

G. Sigurðsson↳ J. Montero

61'

M. Abeid← D. Janmaat

69'

M. Grimes← J. Montero

71'

J. Cork

72'

Sung-Yong Ki← Nélson Oliveira

74'

S. de Jong← R. Cabella

74'

A. Armstrong← E. Rivière

81'

M. Emnes← G. Sigurðsson

87'

S. de Jong↳ J. Colback

Newcastle

Swansea

1

6

22

33

2

12

24

⚽

Cork

8

Shelvey

23

⚽A

▼

Sigurðsso

20

A

▼

Montero

17

⚽

▼

1

2

4

6

22

▼

Janmaat

18

Gutiérrez

8

Anita

14

A

Colback

20

▼

Cabella

29

▼

Rivière

17

⚽

Pérez

61'▲M. Abeid←▼D. Janmaat

74'▲S. de Jong←▼R. Cabella

74'▲A. Armstrong←▼E. Rivière

Newcastle substitutes

30Abeid10Jong32Armstrong11Gouffran25Obertan28Ameobi41Woodman

69'▲M. Grimes←▼J. Montero

72'▲Sung-Yong Ki←▼Nélson Oliveira

81'▲M. Emnes←▼G. Sigurðsson

Swansea substitutes

21Grimes4Ki11Emnes7Britton25Tremmel27Bartley56Fulton

Premier League: Newcastle 2–3 Swansea

Swansea beat Newcastle 3-2 in Premier League on April 25, 2015.

Goals: Ayoze Pérez (20'), Nélson Oliveira (45+2'), G. Sigurðsson (49'), J. Cork (71'), S. de Jong (87').

The match was played at St. James' Park (Newcastle-upon-Tyne).

Newcastle vs Swansea — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Premier League: Newcastle 2–3 Swansea