Newcastle 1–1 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stoke City

J. Colback 74'

P. Crouch 90'

2/8/2015

Premier League · Round 24St James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Newcastle48%

×Draw25%

Stoke City26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.08

Newcastle

1.56

Stoke City

1.08

Newcastle creates 44% more chances

Season form · 175 home / 74 away

1.51

creates per match

0.91

1.26

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Newcastle

1.51

Stoke City

0.91

allows per match

Newcastle

1.26

Stoke City

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newcastle+0.00on par

Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

74%

Newcastle or Stoke City

75%

Draw or Stoke City

52%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

25%

Stoke City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

79%

Newcastle 2+ goals

46%

Newcastle 3+ goals

21%

Stoke City 1+ goals

66%

Stoke City 2+ goals

29%

Stoke City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

65%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.26 · 175 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 1.51 + Stoke City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Stoke City attack 0.91 + Newcastle defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Newcastle scores more

48%

level

25%

Stoke City scores more

26%

Newcastle at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

23'

33'

35'

51'

G. Cameron← M. Wilson

53'

Jack Colback

65'

P. Cissé← V. Anita

69'

G. Obertan← R. Cabella

74'

J. Colback↳ M. Sissoko

82'

P. Crouch← S. Ireland

86'

M. Abeid← Sammy Ameobi

89'

Marc Muniesa

90'

P. Crouch↳ G. Cameron

Possession

Statistics

NewcastleStoke

Overview

42%Possession58%

5Corners8

14Fouls17

Shots

3On Target4

3Off Target1

Passing

42%Possession58%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls17

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1