Newcastle 3–1 Southampton: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Southampton

C. Wilson 81', 54'

T. Walcott 79' (OG)

S. Armstrong 41'

4/30/2023

Premier League · Round 34St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Newcastle60%

×Draw20%

Southampton20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.19

Newcastle

2.19

Southampton

1.19

Newcastle creates 84% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 6 away

2.13

creates per match

0.95

1.43

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Newcastle

2.13

Southampton

0.95

allows per match

Newcastle

1.43

Southampton

2.26

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Newcastle-0.05on par

Southampton-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

80%

Newcastle or Southampton

80%

Draw or Southampton

40%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

37%

Southampton wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

89%

Newcastle 2+ goals

64%

Newcastle 3+ goals

37%

Southampton 1+ goals

70%

Southampton 2+ goals

33%

Southampton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

75%

Southampton (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.43 · 25 matches

Southampton away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.26 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.13 + Southampton defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.19

Southampton attack 0.95 + Newcastle defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Newcastle scores more

60%

level

20%

Southampton scores more

20%

Newcastle at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Wilson

Newcastle · F

8.5

Match Events

-5'

Stuart Armstrong

4'

Jan Bednarek

41'

S. Armstrong↳ K. Sulemana

46'

C. Wilson← A. Gordon

54'

C. Wilson↳ A. Isak

56'

Kyle Walker-Peters

64'

T. Walcott← M. Djenepo

69'

M. Almirón← J. Murphy

70'

A. Armstrong← K. Sulemana

70'

A. Maitland-Niles← Lyanco

71'

M. Elyounoussi← S. Armstrong

72'

Roméo Lavia

76'

Callum WilsonGoal cancelled

77'

C. Adams← C. Alcaraz

79'

Joelinton

79'

T. WalcottOwn goal

81'

C. Wilson

90+2'

E. Anderson← J. Willock

90+2'

M. Ritchie← A. Isak

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleSouthampton

Overview

63%Possession37%

22Total Shots4

4.38Expected Goals (xG)0.83

11Corners2

7Fouls10

Shots

22Total Shots4

5On Target3

9Off Target1

8Blocked0

18Inside Box3

4Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

498Total Passes298

408Accurate Passes208

82%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls10

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Newcastle vs Southampton

Newcastle beat Southampton 3-1 in Premier League on April 30, 2023.

Goals: S. Armstrong (41'), C. Wilson (54', 81'), T. Walcott (79' o.g.).

Newcastle controlled possession (63%) and registered 22 shots to 4.

The match was played at St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne.

Newcastle vs Southampton — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Newcastle vs Southampton