Newcastle 2–2 Southampton: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Southampton

G. Wijnaldum 48'

P. Cissé 42'

S. Long 79'

G. Pellè 24'

8/9/2015

Premier League · Round 1St James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 168+ matches

Newcastle47%

×Draw25%

Southampton28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.17

Newcastle

1.58

Southampton

1.17

Newcastle creates 35% more chances

Season form · 175 home / 168 away

1.51

creates per match

1.08

1.26

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Newcastle

1.51

Southampton

1.08

allows per match

Newcastle

1.26

Southampton

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newcastle+0.00on par

Southampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

72%

Newcastle or Southampton

75%

Draw or Southampton

53%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

24%

Southampton wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

79%

Newcastle 2+ goals

47%

Newcastle 3+ goals

21%

Southampton 1+ goals

69%

Southampton 2+ goals

33%

Southampton 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

62%

Southampton (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.26 · 175 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.65 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 1.51 + Southampton defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.58

Southampton attack 1.08 + Newcastle defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Newcastle scores more

47%

level

25%

Southampton scores more

28%

Newcastle at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

D. Tadić

Southampton · M

8.0

Match Events

12'

Cédric Soares

24'

G. Pellè↳ Cédric Soares

42'

P. Cissé

46'

R. Martina← Cédric Soares

48'

G. Wijnaldum↳ G. Obertan

55'

Jack Colback

60'

José Fonte

65'

S. Long← J. Rodriguez

68'

C. Tioté← V. Anita

75'

Aleksandar Mitrović

75'

A. Mitrović← P. Cissé

79'

S. Long↳ D. Tadić

81'

S. de Jong← G. Wijnaldum

87'

Steven Davis

90'

Graziano Pellè

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleSouthampton

Overview

56%Possession44%

9Total Shots14

6Corners6

0Fouls0

Shots

9Total Shots14

4On Target4

3Off Target7

2Blocked3

6Inside Box10

3Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

485Total Passes389

396Accurate Passes309

82%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

0Fouls0

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides3