Newcastle 0–2 Liverpool: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Liverpool

C. Gakpo 17'

D. Núñez 10'

2/18/2023

Premier League · Round 24St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Newcastle41%

×Draw23%

Liverpool36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.54

Newcastle

1.67

Liverpool

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 26 away

2.04

creates per match

1.62

1.46

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Newcastle

2.04

Liverpool

1.62

allows per match

Newcastle

1.46

Liverpool

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

Newcastle+0.00on par

Liverpool+0.26scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

64%

Newcastle or Liverpool

77%

Draw or Liverpool

59%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

21%

Liverpool wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

81%

Newcastle 2+ goals

50%

Newcastle 3+ goals

23%

Liverpool 1+ goals

79%

Liverpool 2+ goals

45%

Liverpool 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

54%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.29 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.04 + Liverpool defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.67

Liverpool attack 1.62 + Newcastle defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Newcastle scores more

41%

level

23%

Liverpool scores more

36%

Newcastle at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

66

T. Alexander-Arnold

Liverpool · D

8.2

Match Events

10'

D. Núñez↳ T. Alexander-Arnold

11'

Darwin NúñezGoal confirmed

17'

C. Gakpo↳ Mohamed Salah

18'

Cody GakpoGoal confirmed

20'

Fabinho

22'

Nick Pope

24'

M. Dúbravka← E. Anderson

37'

Miguel Almirón

59'

J. Milner← Stefan Bajčetić

59'

Diogo Jota← C. Gakpo

59'

H. Elliott← J. Henderson

59'

Roberto Firmino← D. Núñez

64'

C. Wilson← A. Isak

64'

A. Gordon← M. Almirón

64'

J. Murphy← K. Trippier

71'

M. Ritchie← Joelinton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleLiverpool

Overview

37%Possession63%

14Total Shots13

2.04Expected Goals (xG)1.87

6Corners7

3Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots13

4On Target7

7Off Target4

3Blocked2

12Inside Box8

2Outside Box5

Passing

37%Possession63%

350Total Passes605

287Accurate Passes533

82%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

3Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

3Offsides0