Newcastle 1–3 Liverpool: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Liverpool

D. Gayle 1'

S. Mané 89'

D. Origi 59'

V. van Dijk 38'

7/26/2020

Premier League · Round 38St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Newcastle43%

×Draw23%

Liverpool34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.50

Newcastle

1.73

Liverpool

1.50

Newcastle creates 15% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

2.13

creates per match

1.61

1.38

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Newcastle

2.13

Liverpool

1.61

allows per match

Newcastle

1.38

Liverpool

1.32

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Newcastle-0.13scores less

Liverpool+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

66%

Newcastle or Liverpool

77%

Draw or Liverpool

57%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

23%

Liverpool wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

82%

Newcastle 2+ goals

52%

Newcastle 3+ goals

25%

Liverpool 1+ goals

78%

Liverpool 2+ goals

44%

Liverpool 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

56%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.32 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.13 + Liverpool defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.73

Liverpool attack 1.61 + Newcastle defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Newcastle scores more

43%

level

23%

Liverpool scores more

34%

Newcastle at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Milner

Liverpool · M

8.0

Match Events

1'

D. Gayle↳ J. Shelvey

33'

Federico Fernández

38'

V. van Dijk↳ A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

46'

Joelinton← A. Saint-Maximin

49'

S. Longstaff← N. Bentaleb

59'

D. Origi↳ A. Robertson

64'

Roberto Firmino← A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

64'

S. Mané← T. Minamino

64'

Mohamed Salah← D. Origi

70'

A. Carroll← D. Gayle

70'

I. Hayden← M. Almirón

74'

K. Watts← D. Rose

85'

T. Alexander-Arnold← N. Williams

85'

C. Jones← N. Keïta

89'

S. Mané↳ Roberto Firmino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleLiverpool

Overview

25%Possession75%

3Total Shots14

2Corners4

11Fouls5

Shots

3Total Shots14

2On Target6

1Off Target5

0Blocked3

1Inside Box7

2Outside Box7

Passing

25%Possession75%

267Total Passes792

175Accurate Passes705

66%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls5

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1