Newcastle 2–3 Liverpool: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.50

Newcastle

1.73

Liverpool

1.50

Newcastle creates 15% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

2.13

creates per match

1.61

1.38

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Newcastle

2.13

Liverpool

1.61

allows per match

Newcastle

1.38

Liverpool

1.32

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Newcastle-0.13scores less

Liverpool+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

66%

Newcastle or Liverpool

77%

Draw or Liverpool

57%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

23%

Liverpool wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

82%

Newcastle 2+ goals

52%

Newcastle 3+ goals

25%

Liverpool 1+ goals

78%

Liverpool 2+ goals

44%

Liverpool 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

56%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.32 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.13 + Liverpool defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.73

Liverpool attack 1.61 + Newcastle defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Newcastle scores more

43%

level

23%

Liverpool scores more

34%

Newcastle at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

66

T. Alexander-Arnold

Liverpool · D

8.4

Match Events

13'

V. van Dijk↳ T. Alexander-Arnold

20'

C. Atsu

28'

Mohamed Salah↳ T. Alexander-Arnold

45'

Fabian Schär

54'

S. Rondón↳ Javi Manquillo

66'

X. Shaqiri← G. Wijnaldum

73'

D. Origi← Mohamed Salah

83'

86'

90'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleLiverpool

Overview

30%Possession70%

14Total Shots11

2Corners3

10Fouls4

Shots

14Total Shots11

7On Target4

3Off Target6

4Blocked1

10Inside Box10

4Outside Box1

Passing

30%Possession70%

294Total Passes677

204Accurate Passes567

69%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls4

1Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2