Newcastle 1–1 Leeds: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Leeds

A. Saint-Maximin 44'

Raphinha 13'

9/17/2021

Premier League · Round 5St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Newcastle54%

×Draw22%

Leeds24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchLeeds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.26

Newcastle

1.98

Leeds

1.26

Newcastle creates 57% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

2.13

creates per match

1.15

1.38

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Newcastle

2.13

Leeds

1.15

allows per match

Newcastle

1.38

Leeds

1.83

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Newcastle-0.13scores less

Leeds-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Leeds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

76%

Newcastle or Leeds

78%

Draw or Leeds

46%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

31%

Leeds wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

86%

Newcastle 2+ goals

59%

Newcastle 3+ goals

31%

Leeds 1+ goals

72%

Leeds 2+ goals

36%

Leeds 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

69%

Leeds (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.83 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.13 + Leeds defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.98

Leeds attack 1.15 + Newcastle defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Newcastle scores more

54%

level

22%

Leeds scores more

24%

Newcastle at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

K. Darlow

Newcastle · G

8.2

Match Events

8'

Matt Ritchie

13'

Raphinha↳ P. Bamford

39'

Miguel Almirón

44'

A. Saint-Maximin↳ Joelinton

57'

Rodrigo

61'

T. Roberts← D. James

62'

R. Fraser← M. Almirón

67'

C. Summerville← Raphinha

81'

Junior Firpo

81'

E. Krafth← Javi Manquillo

89'

J. Shackleton← L. Ayling

90+1'

J. Murphy← Joelinton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleLeeds

Overview

35%Possession65%

17Total Shots22

4Corners5

9Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots22

7On Target9

8Off Target9

2Blocked4

10Inside Box10

7Outside Box12

Passing

35%Possession65%

301Total Passes541

211Accurate Passes460

70%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

9Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1