Newcastle 1–2 Leeds: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Leeds

M. Almirón 57'

J. Harrison 61'

Raphinha 17'

1/26/2021

Premier League · Round 20St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Newcastle54%

×Draw22%

Leeds24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchLeeds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.26

Newcastle

1.98

Leeds

1.26

Newcastle creates 57% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

2.13

creates per match

1.15

1.38

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Newcastle

2.13

Leeds

1.15

allows per match

Newcastle

1.38

Leeds

1.83

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Newcastle-0.13scores less

Leeds-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Leeds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

76%

Newcastle or Leeds

78%

Draw or Leeds

46%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

31%

Leeds wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

86%

Newcastle 2+ goals

59%

Newcastle 3+ goals

31%

Leeds 1+ goals

72%

Leeds 2+ goals

36%

Leeds 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

69%

Leeds (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.83 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.13 + Leeds defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.98

Leeds attack 1.15 + Newcastle defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Newcastle scores more

54%

level

22%

Leeds scores more

24%

Newcastle at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Raphinha

Leeds · M

8.2

Match Events

10'

P. Struijk← Llorente

17'

Raphinha↳ Rodrigo

54'

Ezgjan Alioski

56'

M. Klich← E. Alioski

57'

M. Almirón↳ C. Wilson

60'

T. Roberts← P. Bamford

61'

J. Harrison↳ Raphinha

64'

A. Saint-Maximin← J. Murphy

77'

85'

85'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleLeeds

Overview

42%Possession58%

22Total Shots9

9Corners4

10Fouls15

Shots

22Total Shots9

5On Target2

10Off Target4

7Blocked3

9Inside Box8

13Outside Box1

Passing

42%Possession58%

313Total Passes450

222Accurate Passes330

71%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Premier League: Newcastle 1–2 Leeds

Leeds beat Newcastle 2-1 in Premier League on January 26, 2021.

Goals: Raphinha (17'), M. Almirón (57'), J. Harrison (61').

Leeds controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 22.

The match was played at St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne.

Newcastle vs Leeds — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Newcastle 1–2 Leeds