Newcastle 2–0 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Huddersfield

Ayoze Pérez 52'

S. Rondón 46'

2/23/2019

Premier League · Round 27St James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Newcastle56%

×Draw24%

Huddersfield20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.92

Newcastle

1.71

Huddersfield

0.92

Newcastle creates 86% more chances

Season form · 162 home / 36 away

1.49

creates per match

0.58

1.26

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Newcastle

1.49

Huddersfield

0.58

allows per match

Newcastle

1.26

Huddersfield

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newcastle+0.00on par

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

80%

Newcastle or Huddersfield

76%

Draw or Huddersfield

44%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

31%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

82%

Newcastle 2+ goals

51%

Newcastle 3+ goals

24%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

60%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

23%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

73%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.26 · 162 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 1.49 + Huddersfield defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.71

Huddersfield attack 0.58 + Newcastle defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Newcastle scores more

56%

level

24%

Huddersfield scores more

20%

Newcastle at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Lössl

Huddersfield · G

8.8

Match Events

20'

Tommy Smith

24'

F. Hadergjonaj← J. Puncheon

27'

DeAndre Yedlin

46'

S. Rondón↳ I. Hayden

52'

Ayoze Pérez↳ S. Rondón

57'

Matt Ritchie

68'

Kenedy← M. Ritchie

69'

P. Billing← J. Bacuna

76'

S. Mounié← L. Depoitre

81'

C. Atsu← M. Almirón

84'

Joselu← S. Rondón

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleHuddersfield

Overview

54%Possession46%

29Total Shots3

12Corners0

11Fouls7

Shots

29Total Shots3

12On Target0

11Off Target1

6Blocked2

23Inside Box2

6Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

549Total Passes480

455Accurate Passes378

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves10

Discipline

11Fouls7

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1