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Newcastle vs Gateshead — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Newcastle
Newcastle
FT
5 – 1
Gateshead
Gateshead
7/9/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Little Benton Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Newcastle62%
×Draw18%
Gateshead20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle
2.67
Gateshead
1.50

Newcastle creates 78% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Newcastle
3.67
Gateshead
2.67

allows per match

Newcastle
0.33
Gateshead
1.67

finishing

Newcastle+0.00on par
Gateshead+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Gateshead →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw
80%
Newcastle or Gateshead
82%
Draw or Gateshead
38%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+
41%
Gateshead wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals
93%
Newcastle 2+ goals
74%
Newcastle 3+ goals
49%
Gateshead 1+ goals
78%
Gateshead 2+ goals
44%
Gateshead 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)
75%
Gateshead (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 3.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Gateshead away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 3.67 + Gateshead defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.67

Gateshead attack 2.67 + Newcastle defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Newcastle scores more
62%
level
18%
Gateshead scores more
20%

Newcastle at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Newcastle 5–1 Gateshead

Newcastle beat Gateshead 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Little Benton Academy in Newcastle upon Tyne, Tyne and Wear.