Newcastle 3–0 Cardiff: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cardiff

Ayoze Pérez 90+3'

F. Schär 63', 24'

1/19/2019

Premier League · Round 23St James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Newcastle53%

×Draw25%

Cardiff22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.96

Newcastle

1.64

Cardiff

0.96

Newcastle creates 71% more chances

Season form · 178 home / 23 away

1.50

creates per match

0.65

1.26

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Newcastle

1.50

Cardiff

0.65

allows per match

Newcastle

1.26

Cardiff

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newcastle+0.00on par

Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

78%

Newcastle or Cardiff

75%

Draw or Cardiff

47%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

29%

Cardiff wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

81%

Newcastle 2+ goals

49%

Newcastle 3+ goals

23%

Cardiff 1+ goals

62%

Cardiff 2+ goals

25%

Cardiff 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

71%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.26 · 178 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 1.50 + Cardiff defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.64

Cardiff attack 0.65 + Newcastle defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Newcastle scores more

53%

level

25%

Cardiff scores more

22%

Newcastle at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

F. Schär

Newcastle · D

8.9

Match Events

24'

F. Schär↳ I. Hayden

46'

Víctor Camarasa

63'

F. Schär↳ J. Lascelles

64'

B. Reid← O. Niasse

82'

Josh Murphy← N. Mendez-Laing

85'

Javi Manquillo← M. Ritchie

89'

D. Ward← C. Paterson

90+3'

Ayoze Pérez↳ S. Rondón

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleCardiff

Overview

53%Possession47%

16Total Shots9

7Corners10

11Fouls6

Shots

16Total Shots9

6On Target1

5Off Target5

5Blocked3

12Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

375Total Passes325

284Accurate Passes213

76%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls6

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0