Newcastle 1–0 Burnley: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Burnley

C. Wilson 40'

12/4/2021

Premier League · Round 15St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Newcastle60%

×Draw21%

Burnley19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.09

Newcastle

2.08

Burnley

1.09

Newcastle creates 91% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 20 away

2.09

creates per match

0.72

1.46

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Newcastle

2.09

Burnley

0.72

allows per match

Newcastle

1.46

Burnley

2.08

+0.09on par

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Newcastle+0.09on par

Burnley+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

81%

Newcastle or Burnley

79%

Draw or Burnley

40%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

37%

Burnley wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

87%

Newcastle 2+ goals

61%

Newcastle 3+ goals

34%

Burnley 1+ goals

66%

Burnley 2+ goals

30%

Burnley 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

76%

Burnley (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.46 · 22 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.08 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.09 + Burnley defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.08

Burnley attack 0.72 + Newcastle defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Newcastle scores more

60%

level

21%

Burnley scores more

19%

Newcastle at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Tarkowski

Burnley · D

7.9

Match Events

32'

M. Vydra← M. Cornet

40'

C. Wilson↳ F. Schär

75'

Nathan Collins

75'

C. Roberts← M. Lowton

80'

J. Rodriguez← J. Guðmundsson

85'

F. Fernández← M. Almirón

87'

Javier Manquillo

90+1'

J. Murphy← A. Saint-Maximin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleBurnley

Overview

48%Possession52%

19Total Shots10

10Corners3

11Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots10

4On Target1

4Off Target5

11Blocked4

12Inside Box6

7Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

322Total Passes356

214Accurate Passes254

66%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1