Newcastle 3–0 Benfica: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Benfica

H. Barnes 83', 70'

A. Gordon 32'

10/21/2025

UEFA Champions League

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Newcastle59%

×Draw23%

Benfica18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchBenfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.90

Newcastle

1.82

Benfica

0.90

Newcastle creates 102% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.94

creates per match

0.92

0.88

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Newcastle

1.94

Benfica

0.92

allows per match

Newcastle

0.88

Benfica

1.70

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Newcastle+0.23scores more

Benfica-0.06on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Benfica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

82%

Newcastle or Benfica

77%

Draw or Benfica

41%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

34%

Benfica wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

84%

Newcastle 2+ goals

54%

Newcastle 3+ goals

27%

Benfica 1+ goals

59%

Benfica 2+ goals

23%

Benfica 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

76%

Benfica (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.88 · 6 matches

Benfica away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.70 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 1.94 + Benfica defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.82

Benfica attack 0.92 + Newcastle defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Newcastle scores more

59%

level

23%

Benfica scores more

18%

Newcastle at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

32'

45'

63'

63'

63'

F. Ivanovic← A. Dedic

70'

H. Barnes↳ N. Pope

83'

H. Barnes↳ A. Gordon

85'

W. Osula← N. Woltemade

85'

A. Elanga← A. Gordon

90'

J. Willock← Bruno Guimaraes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleBenfica

Overview

52%Possession48%

19Total Shots7

2.63Expected Goals (xG)0.33

12Corners8

16Fouls7

Shots

19Total Shots7

10On Target2

4Off Target3

5Blocked2

13Inside Box2

6Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

417Total Passes388

352Accurate Passes315

84%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

0.16Goals Prevented0.16

Discipline

16Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1