Newcastle 1–2 Arsenal: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Arsenal

N. Woltemade 34'

Gabriel 90'

M. Merino 84'

9/28/2025

Premier League · Round 6St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Newcastle38%

×Draw24%

Arsenal38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

Newcastle

1.56

Arsenal

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 35 away

2.13

creates per match

1.69

1.43

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Newcastle

2.13

Arsenal

1.69

allows per match

Newcastle

1.43

Arsenal

1.00

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

Newcastle-0.05on par

Arsenal+0.31scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

62%

Newcastle or Arsenal

76%

Draw or Arsenal

62%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

19%

Arsenal wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

79%

Newcastle 2+ goals

46%

Newcastle 3+ goals

21%

Arsenal 1+ goals

79%

Arsenal 2+ goals

46%

Arsenal 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

50%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.43 · 25 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.13 + Arsenal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Arsenal attack 1.69 + Newcastle defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Newcastle scores more

38%

level

24%

Arsenal scores more

38%

Newcastle at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Viktor GyökeresPenalty cancelled

34'

N. Woltemade↳ S. Tonali

46'

W. Saliba← C. Mosquera

56'

Riccardo Calafiori

66'

A. Elanga← J. Murphy

67'

K. Trippier← A. Gordon

67'

W. Osula← N. Woltemade

70'

G. Martinelli← B. Saka

70'

M. Merino← R. Calafiori

77'

J. Lascelles← V. Livramento

82'

M. Odegaard← M. Zubimendi

83'

Joelinton

84'

M. Merino↳ D. Rice

88'

Dan Burn

88'

M. Lewis-Skelly← L. Trossard

90+4'

H. Barnes← Joelinton

90'

Gabriel↳ M. Odegaard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleArsenal

Overview

37%Possession63%

8Total Shots20

0.61Expected Goals (xG)2.04

7Corners12

8Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots20

3On Target7

1Off Target7

4Blocked6

7Inside Box18

1Outside Box2

Passing

37%Possession63%

279Total Passes495

194Accurate Passes405

70%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

-0.07Goals Prevented-0.07

Discipline

8Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Newcastle vs Arsenal

Arsenal beat Newcastle 2-1 in Premier League on September 28, 2025.

Goals: N. Woltemade (34'), M. Merino (84'), Gabriel (90').

Arsenal controlled possession (63%) and registered 20 shots to 8.

The match was played at St. James' Park in Newcastle.

Newcastle vs Arsenal — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Newcastle vs Arsenal