Newcastle 0–1 Arsenal: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Arsenal

F. Coloccini 52' (OG)

8/29/2015

Premier League · Round 4St James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Newcastle37%

×Draw24%

Arsenal39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.59

Newcastle

1.54

Arsenal

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 33 away

2.04

creates per match

1.73

1.46

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Newcastle

2.04

Arsenal

1.73

allows per match

Newcastle

1.46

Arsenal

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Newcastle+0.00on par

Arsenal+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

61%

Newcastle or Arsenal

76%

Draw or Arsenal

63%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

18%

Arsenal wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

79%

Newcastle 2+ goals

45%

Newcastle 3+ goals

20%

Arsenal 1+ goals

80%

Arsenal 2+ goals

47%

Arsenal 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

49%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.03 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.04 + Arsenal defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.54

Arsenal attack 1.73 + Newcastle defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Newcastle scores more

37%

level

24%

Arsenal scores more

39%

Arsenal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

A. Sánchez

Arsenal · M

8.6

Match Events

3'

16'

19'

26'

48'

49'

49'

52'

F. ColocciniOwn goal

70'

O. Giroud← T. Walcott

72'

Ayoze Pérez← V. Anita

78'

P. Cissé← M. Sissoko

81'

Arteta← A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

87'

S. de Jong← F. Thauvin

90'

Fabricio Coloccini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleArsenal

Overview

26%Possession74%

1Total Shots22

0Corners9

0Fouls0

Shots

1Total Shots22

0On Target9

1Off Target6

0Blocked7

1Inside Box15

0Outside Box8

Passing

26%Possession74%

268Total Passes777

206Accurate Passes712

77%Pass Accuracy92%

Goalkeeping

9Saves0

Discipline

0Fouls0

6Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2