Newcastle United W 0–3 West Ham W: Result & Stats

Newcastle United W

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

West Ham W

1/16/2026

FA Women's Cup · Round 4Gateshead International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Newcastle United W39%

×Draw23%

West Ham W37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newcastle United WExpected goals in this matchWest Ham W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.60

Newcastle United W

1.65

West Ham W

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

2.30

creates per match

2.00

1.20

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Newcastle United W

2.30

West Ham W

2.00

allows per match

Newcastle United W

1.20

West Ham W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newcastle United W+0.00on par

West Ham W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle United W ↓

West Ham W →

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Newcastle United W or draw

63%

Newcastle United W or West Ham W

77%

Draw or West Ham W

61%

Winning margin

Newcastle United W wins by 2+

20%

West Ham W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Newcastle United W 1+ goals

81%

Newcastle United W 2+ goals

49%

Newcastle United W 3+ goals

23%

West Ham W 1+ goals

80%

West Ham W 2+ goals

47%

West Ham W 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Newcastle United W (draw refunded)

51%

West Ham W (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Newcastle United W at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

West Ham W away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle United W attack 2.30 + West Ham W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

West Ham W attack 2.00 + Newcastle United W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Newcastle United W scores more

39%

level

23%

West Ham W scores more

37%

Newcastle United W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Newcastle United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Newcastle United W vs West Ham W

West Ham W beat Newcastle United W 3-0 in FA Women's Cup on January 16, 2026.

The match was played at Gateshead International Stadium in Gateshead.

Newcastle United W vs West Ham W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Newcastle United W vs West Ham W