Newcastle United W 1–0 Nottingham Forest W

Newcastle United W

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nottingham Forest W

1/12/2025

FA Women's Cup · 4th RoundKingston Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Newcastle United W26%

×Draw19%

Nottingham Forest W55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newcastle United WExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

2.56

Newcastle United W

1.72

Nottingham Forest W

2.56

Nottingham Forest W creates 49% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

2.30

creates per match

3.92

1.20

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Newcastle United W

2.30

Nottingham Forest W

3.92

allows per match

Newcastle United W

1.20

Nottingham Forest W

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newcastle United W+0.00on par

Nottingham Forest W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle United W ↓

Nottingham Forest W →

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Newcastle United W or draw

45%

Newcastle United W or Nottingham Forest W

81%

Draw or Nottingham Forest W

74%

Winning margin

Newcastle United W wins by 2+

12%

Nottingham Forest W wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Newcastle United W 1+ goals

82%

Newcastle United W 2+ goals

51%

Newcastle United W 3+ goals

25%

Nottingham Forest W 1+ goals

92%

Nottingham Forest W 2+ goals

72%

Nottingham Forest W 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Newcastle United W (draw refunded)

32%

Nottingham Forest W (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Newcastle United W at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Nottingham Forest W away — creates 3.92, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle United W attack 2.30 + Nottingham Forest W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.72

Nottingham Forest W attack 3.92 + Newcastle United W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Newcastle United W scores more

26%

level

19%

Nottingham Forest W scores more

55%

Nottingham Forest W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nottingham Forest W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff