Newcastle United W 0–1 Ipswich Town W

Newcastle United W

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ipswich Town W

1/30/2022

FA Women's Cup · 4th RoundKingston Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Newcastle United W31%

×Draw20%

Ipswich Town W49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newcastle United WExpected goals in this matchIpswich Town W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

2.39

Newcastle United W

1.90

Ipswich Town W

2.39

Ipswich Town W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

2.30

creates per match

3.58

1.20

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Newcastle United W

2.30

Ipswich Town W

3.58

allows per match

Newcastle United W

1.20

Ipswich Town W

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newcastle United W+0.00on par

Ipswich Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle United W ↓

Ipswich Town W →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–16%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Newcastle United W or draw

51%

Newcastle United W or Ipswich Town W

80%

Draw or Ipswich Town W

69%

Winning margin

Newcastle United W wins by 2+

16%

Ipswich Town W wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Newcastle United W 1+ goals

85%

Newcastle United W 2+ goals

56%

Newcastle United W 3+ goals

29%

Ipswich Town W 1+ goals

91%

Ipswich Town W 2+ goals

69%

Ipswich Town W 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Newcastle United W (draw refunded)

39%

Ipswich Town W (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Newcastle United W at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Ipswich Town W away — creates 3.58, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle United W attack 2.30 + Ipswich Town W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Ipswich Town W attack 3.58 + Newcastle United W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Newcastle United W scores more

31%

level

20%

Ipswich Town W scores more

49%

Ipswich Town W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ipswich Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff