Newcastle United W 2–1 Barnsley W: Result & Stats

Newcastle United W

2 – 1

Barnsley W

11/27/2022

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundSt. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Newcastle United W63%

×Draw18%

Barnsley W19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newcastle United WExpected goals in this matchBarnsley W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.39

Newcastle United W

2.58

Barnsley W

1.39

Newcastle United W creates 86% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

2.30

creates per match

1.57

1.20

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

Newcastle United W

2.30

Barnsley W

1.57

allows per match

Newcastle United W

1.20

Barnsley W

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newcastle United W+0.00on par

Barnsley W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle United W ↓

Barnsley W →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Newcastle United W or draw

81%

Newcastle United W or Barnsley W

82%

Draw or Barnsley W

37%

Winning margin

Newcastle United W wins by 2+

41%

Barnsley W wins by 2+

Team goals

Newcastle United W 1+ goals

92%

Newcastle United W 2+ goals

72%

Newcastle United W 3+ goals

47%

Barnsley W 1+ goals

75%

Barnsley W 2+ goals

40%

Barnsley W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Newcastle United W (draw refunded)

76%

Barnsley W (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Newcastle United W at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Barnsley W away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle United W attack 2.30 + Barnsley W defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.58

Barnsley W attack 1.57 + Newcastle United W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Newcastle United W scores more

63%

level

18%

Barnsley W scores more

19%

Newcastle United W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Newcastle United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Newcastle United W vs Barnsley W

Newcastle United W beat Barnsley W 2-1 in FA Women's Cup on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne.

Newcastle United W vs Barnsley W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Newcastle United W vs Barnsley W