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Newcastle United U19 vs Milan U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Newcastle United U19
Newcastle United U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Milan U19
Milan U19
12/13/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Blue Flames Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Newcastle United U1940%
×Draw23%
Milan U1938%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle United U19
1.71
Milan U19
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Newcastle United U19
1.50
Milan U19
0.82

allows per match

Newcastle United U19
2.50
Milan U19
1.91

finishing

Newcastle United U19+0.00on par
Milan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle United U19 ↓

Milan U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Newcastle United U19 or draw
62%
Newcastle United U19 or Milan U19
77%
Draw or Milan U19
60%

Winning margin

Newcastle United U19 wins by 2+
20%
Milan U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Newcastle United U19 1+ goals
82%
Newcastle United U19 2+ goals
51%
Newcastle United U19 3+ goals
24%
Milan U19 1+ goals
81%
Milan U19 2+ goals
49%
Milan U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Newcastle United U19 (draw refunded)
51%
Milan U19 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle United U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Milan U19 away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle United U19 attack 1.50 + Milan U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.71

Milan U19 attack 0.82 + Newcastle United U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Newcastle United U19 scores more
40%
level
23%
Milan U19 scores more
38%

Newcastle United U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Newcastle United U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: Newcastle United U19 3–1 Milan U19

Newcastle United U19 beat Milan U19 3-1 in UEFA Youth League on December 13, 2023.

The match was played at Blue Flames Ground in North Tyneside, Tyne and Wear.