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Newcastle United U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Newcastle United U19
Newcastle United U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Borussia Dortmund U19
Borussia Dortmund U19
10/25/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3Gateshead International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Newcastle United U1931%
×Draw21%
Borussia Dortmund U1948%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle United U19
1.67
Borussia Dortmund U19
2.12

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 23 away

creates per match

Newcastle United U19
1.50
Borussia Dortmund U19
1.74

allows per match

Newcastle United U19
2.50
Borussia Dortmund U19
1.83

finishing

Newcastle United U19+0.00on par
Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle United U19 ↓

Borussia Dortmund U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Newcastle United U19 or draw
52%
Newcastle United U19 or Borussia Dortmund U19
79%
Draw or Borussia Dortmund U19
69%

Winning margin

Newcastle United U19 wins by 2+
15%
Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Newcastle United U19 1+ goals
81%
Newcastle United U19 2+ goals
50%
Newcastle United U19 3+ goals
23%
Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals
88%
Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals
62%
Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Newcastle United U19 (draw refunded)
39%
Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle United U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle United U19 attack 1.50 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.67

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 1.74 + Newcastle United U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Newcastle United U19 scores more
31%
level
21%
Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more
48%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: Newcastle United U19 1–2 Borussia Dortmund U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 beat Newcastle United U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 25, 2023.

The match was played at Gateshead International Stadium in Gateshead, Tyne and Wear.