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Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne City — A-League 2018

Newcastle Jets
Newcastle Jets
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Melbourne City
Melbourne City
10/19/2024A-LeagueA-League · Round 1McDonald Jones Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Newcastle Jets38%
×Draw24%
Melbourne City38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle Jets
1.53
Melbourne City
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 108 away

creates per match

Newcastle Jets
1.61
Melbourne City
1.56

allows per match

Newcastle Jets
1.48
Melbourne City
1.45

finishing

Newcastle Jets+0.00on par
Melbourne City+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle Jets ↓

Melbourne City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Newcastle Jets or draw
62%
Newcastle Jets or Melbourne City
76%
Draw or Melbourne City
62%

Winning margin

Newcastle Jets wins by 2+
18%
Melbourne City wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Newcastle Jets 1+ goals
78%
Newcastle Jets 2+ goals
45%
Newcastle Jets 3+ goals
20%
Melbourne City 1+ goals
78%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
45%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Newcastle Jets (draw refunded)
50%
Melbourne City (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle Jets at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.48 · 104 matches

Melbourne City away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.45 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle Jets attack 1.61 + Melbourne City defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.53

Melbourne City attack 1.56 + Newcastle Jets defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Newcastle Jets scores more
38%
level
24%
Melbourne City scores more
38%

Newcastle Jets at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Newcastle Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne City

Melbourne City beat Newcastle Jets 1-0 in A-League on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at McDonald Jones Stadium in Newcastle.