Dalian Transcendence 0–1 Yanbian Tigers FC

Dalian Transcendence

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Yanbian Tigers FC

4/4/2018

League One · Round 4Jinzhou Stadium (Dalian)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dalian Transcendence38%

×Draw29%

Yanbian Tigers FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalian TranscendenceExpected goals in this matchYanbian Tigers FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.03

Dalian Transcendence

1.14

Yanbian Tigers FC

1.03

Dalian Transcendence creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.07

creates per match

0.87

1.20

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Dalian Transcendence

1.07

Yanbian Tigers FC

0.87

allows per match

Dalian Transcendence

1.20

Yanbian Tigers FC

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalian Transcendence+0.00on par

Yanbian Tigers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Transcendence ↓

Yanbian Tigers FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dalian Transcendence or draw

67%

Dalian Transcendence or Yanbian Tigers FC

71%

Draw or Yanbian Tigers FC

62%

Winning margin

Dalian Transcendence wins by 2+

16%

Yanbian Tigers FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dalian Transcendence 1+ goals

68%

Dalian Transcendence 2+ goals

32%

Dalian Transcendence 3+ goals

11%

Yanbian Tigers FC 1+ goals

64%

Yanbian Tigers FC 2+ goals

28%

Yanbian Tigers FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dalian Transcendence (draw refunded)

54%

Yanbian Tigers FC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Transcendence at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Yanbian Tigers FC away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Transcendence attack 1.07 + Yanbian Tigers FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Yanbian Tigers FC attack 0.87 + Dalian Transcendence defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dalian Transcendence scores more

38%

level

29%

Yanbian Tigers FC scores more

33%

Dalian Transcendence at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dalian Transcendence will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff