Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

New York Red Bulls vs FC Dallas — Major League Soccer 2026

New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Dallas
FC Dallas
3/10/2024Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 4Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

New York Red Bulls44%
×Draw23%
FC Dallas33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New York Red Bulls
1.77
FC Dallas
1.50

New York Red Bulls creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 24 away

creates per match

New York Red Bulls
1.84
FC Dallas
1.50

allows per match

New York Red Bulls
1.49
FC Dallas
1.71

finishing

New York Red Bulls+0.05on par
FC Dallas-0.12scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York Red Bulls ↓

FC Dallas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

New York Red Bulls or draw
67%
New York Red Bulls or FC Dallas
77%
Draw or FC Dallas
56%

Winning margin

New York Red Bulls wins by 2+
23%
FC Dallas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

New York Red Bulls 1+ goals
83%
New York Red Bulls 2+ goals
53%
New York Red Bulls 3+ goals
26%
FC Dallas 1+ goals
78%
FC Dallas 2+ goals
44%
FC Dallas 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

New York Red Bulls (draw refunded)
57%
FC Dallas (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York Red Bulls at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.49 · 19 matches

FC Dallas away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York Red Bulls attack 1.84 + FC Dallas defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.77

FC Dallas attack 1.50 + New York Red Bulls defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

New York Red Bulls scores more
44%
level
23%
FC Dallas scores more
33%

New York Red Bulls at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "New York Red Bulls will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: New York Red Bulls 2–1 FC Dallas

New York Red Bulls beat FC Dallas 2-1 in Major League Soccer on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Harrison, New Jersey.