New York Red Bulls 2–2 Columbus Crew

New York Red Bulls

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Columbus Crew

11/3/2024

Major League Soccer · MLS Cup - Round 1Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

New York Red Bulls43%

×Draw24%

Columbus Crew33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

New York Red BullsExpected goals in this matchColumbus Crew

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.38

New York Red Bulls

1.62

Columbus Crew

1.38

New York Red Bulls creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

1.84

creates per match

1.26

1.49

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

New York Red Bulls

1.84

Columbus Crew

1.26

allows per match

New York Red Bulls

1.49

Columbus Crew

1.40

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

New York Red Bulls+0.05on par

Columbus Crew+0.30scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York Red Bulls ↓

Columbus Crew →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

New York Red Bulls or draw

67%

New York Red Bulls or Columbus Crew

76%

Draw or Columbus Crew

57%

Winning margin

New York Red Bulls wins by 2+

22%

Columbus Crew wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

New York Red Bulls 1+ goals

80%

New York Red Bulls 2+ goals

48%

New York Red Bulls 3+ goals

22%

Columbus Crew 1+ goals

75%

Columbus Crew 2+ goals

40%

Columbus Crew 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

New York Red Bulls (draw refunded)

57%

Columbus Crew (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York Red Bulls at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.49 · 19 matches

Columbus Crew away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.40 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York Red Bulls attack 1.84 + Columbus Crew defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.62

Columbus Crew attack 1.26 + New York Red Bulls defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

New York Red Bulls scores more

43%

level

24%

Columbus Crew scores more

33%

New York Red Bulls at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "New York Red Bulls will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff