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New York RB III vs New Jersey Copa — USL League Two 2018

New York RB III
New York RB III
FT
2 – 0
New Jersey Copa
New Jersey Copa
7/13/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 52Red Bull Academy Training Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

New York RB III64%
×Draw20%
New Jersey Copa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New York RB III
2.15
New Jersey Copa
0.98

New York RB III creates 119% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 40 away

creates per match

New York RB III
2.09
New Jersey Copa
1.15

allows per match

New York RB III
0.82
New Jersey Copa
2.20

finishing

New York RB III+0.00on par
New Jersey Copa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York RB III ↓

New Jersey Copa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

New York RB III or draw
84%
New York RB III or New Jersey Copa
80%
Draw or New Jersey Copa
36%

Winning margin

New York RB III wins by 2+
40%
New Jersey Copa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

New York RB III 1+ goals
88%
New York RB III 2+ goals
63%
New York RB III 3+ goals
36%
New Jersey Copa 1+ goals
62%
New Jersey Copa 2+ goals
26%
New Jersey Copa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

New York RB III (draw refunded)
80%
New Jersey Copa (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York RB III at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

New Jersey Copa away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.20 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York RB III attack 2.09 + New Jersey Copa defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.15

New Jersey Copa attack 1.15 + New York RB III defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

New York RB III scores more
64%
level
20%
New Jersey Copa scores more
16%

New York RB III at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "New York RB III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New York RB III 2 – 0 New Jersey Copa

New York RB III beat New Jersey Copa 2-0 in USL League Two on July 13, 2021.

The match was played at Red Bull Academy Training Field 1 in Whippany, New Jersey.